FOREST's ADVANCES

Trying to get rid of surfing, wasted too much time, any suggestion?.......................... 七宗罪?............................... 1,没有原则的政治;2,不劳而获的财富;3,没有理智的享乐;4,没有特点的知识;5,没有道德的商业;6,没有人文关怀的科学;7,没有牺牲的崇拜。............................................. 虽然这是圣雄甘地说老印的.......

Saturday, October 15, 2005

Sad and Angry

One of the most-discussed news stories on China's internet currently is related to the brutal murder on a bus of the Beijing's notorious public transportation.
A 14 year old girl was choked to death on the bus by a ticket seller from the Beijing public transportation system simply because the 14-year-old cursed her for her bad attitude. The whole incident was witnessed by girl’s 70 years old father and 50 years old mother, who both work for Tsinghua University. The rude service of Beijing public transportation is notorious. Instead of a rude service, it actually should be called a brutal service because the girl is not the first one who was murdered by the servicemen from Beijing public transportation system in the last five years. After the incident, it is even stranger to see the most of state owned local newspapers do not want to cover it. One commentator on Sina disclosed the reason. The head of Beijing public transportation system pressed the local news media very hard for not covering this incident. Fortunately, the “xin1 jing1 bao4 (NEW BEIJING NEWSPAPER)”, a new local newspaper invested by a big southern news media corporation resisted the pressure and finally reported the incident successfully. It is sad to know that the local newspaper couldn’t be able to resist the pressure from a corporation like Beijing public transportation system. Apparently the head of the system has a very strong backup from the local government officials. The head and some government officials could lose their job for the coverage of this incident.
The detailed story can be found on Sina. and Sina forum

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印尼華人悲慘命運的始作俑者

2005.10.16  中國時報
梁東屏/東南亞

在東南亞的國家中,印尼無疑是排華「最有制度」的國家,自從一九四六年頒布第三號法令開始,非但由「人民協商會議」陸續制定了許多排華法令,而且每當印尼發生程度不等的動亂,華人也老是首當其衝,免不了被打、砸、搶。而這一切,恐怕都得回溯到四十年前的一九六五年九月三十日。

當時印尼發生了一場疑雲重重的「流產政變」,使得軍事強人蘇哈托上台執政,因之而起的「清共」運動,乃至隨後所引發的大規模排華事件,卻在根本上扭曲了印尼華人的命運。


在印尼歷史上,「九三○事件」已經被定性為「共黨政變」,當局也製作了一部影片,每年九月三十日當天在各級學校播放,直到瓦希德總統任內才停止。

根據印尼官方的說法是,四十年前的那場政變是印共所主導,由拉提夫上校及烏坦上校率領總統府衛隊以及參加建軍節校閱的兩支外地部隊,逮捕並謀害了包括武裝部隊司令、情報首長在內的六名高級軍事將領,當時的國防部長納蘇辛僅以身免,時任印尼精銳陸軍戰略後備部隊司令的蘇哈托則當機立斷,立刻發動反擊、敉平政變。

坐實共黨叛亂 發動排華運動

但是現在已經有愈來愈多的證據顯示,四十年前的那場「政變」,應該是蘇哈托與當時總統蘇卡諾之間鬥爭的結果,而兩年之後開始的排華事件,則是蘇哈托等人為了坐實「真有」共黨叛亂而發動的,結果導致無數的華人橫屍山野,流離失所。

蘇哈托平定政變之後,也從來就沒有在證據上把所謂的「政變領袖」與共黨聯繫起來。當年被指為政變領導人之一的拉提夫上校,被囚禁了三十多年後,已經於一九九九年被釋放出獄。他在次年接受新加坡「海峽時報」訪問時,直指所謂「九三○事件」,根本就是蘇哈托製造出來的。

擁有軍權的蘇哈托宣布印共為非法組織後,隨即開始展開「清共運動」,其實就是屠殺。美國中央情報局曾經把這段時間的印尼稱為「二十世紀最慘的集體謀殺」,估計有五十萬名「左翼分子」被殺,另有六十萬名未經任何審判而被關進牢裡。

血流紅碗事件 華人慘遭屠殺

針對華人的行動是自一九六七年十月展開。印尼當局將西加里曼丹與馬來西亞交界處一片廣邈的土地劃為「紅線區」,強迫居住在區域內的華人往山口洋、坤甸等都市遷移。尤有甚者,印尼軍方散布謠言,指稱有九名大雅族(印尼高山原住民)的長老被華人所殺,藉以挑撥原本與華人關係不錯,但是頭腦卻相當單純的大雅人。當時,報仇心切的大雅人在許多華人住所前面都放置了盛有雞血或狗血的紅色土碗。這是大雅人復仇的記號,任何大雅族人見到紅碗,都有「責任」入屋將裡面的人趕盡殺絕。也正因為如此,當年的排華事件又被稱作「紅碗事件」。

究竟有多少華人在「紅碗事件」中被殺,至今除了「哎呀,太多了」之外,沒有一個人說得出確切的數字。不過,根據一些倖存者的陳述,至少確定有好幾個地方是發生了「屠村」的事。「溝水都變成紅色」、「大雅人殺華人,就像殺雞殺鴨一樣」,可見當時悲慘的情狀。

在山口洋附近開設陶瓷場的蔡添英就表示,「我住的那個村莊共有三千多人,就被殺了一半,那時完全不分青紅皂白,村子內只要是十五歲以上的男子全都被抓去,如果那時台灣、中國、香港能夠用腳走得到的話,我們就都走去了」。

清共長達五年 諸罪名莫須有

大雅人殺人是很原始的「砍人頭」方式。目前住在坤甸卡江地區的龐春香,當年就親眼見到丈夫蕭水淋被大雅人砍殺,她自己的頭部以及才三歲大女兒蕭蕙芳的手臂都被砍傷,留下的疤痕至今清晰可見。

其實在坤甸、山口洋一帶,只要是五十歲以上的人,隨手抓來問,都有可能是當年的受害者。在漆樹港開雜貨店的蔡少文是在一九六七年舉家逃出山區,結果被關進山口洋集中營,姊姊、哥哥都死在集中營裡。他說,「沒東西吃,我們什麼都吃,很多人就拉肚子死掉,每天都有,至少幾百人死在那邊」。蔡少文後來被送往坤甸,「他們說我是共產黨,我就得承認,不承認也不行,會被折磨死的」。

這個「清共」的時期足足有五年之久,許多離奇古怪的莫須有罪名,一個個出爐,如商店招牌上有中文、甚至於使用紅黃兩色(中共的五星旗顏色),都會構成有共黨嫌疑而被抓走。可是,這些受害的華人卻鮮少有人想平反,他們說,「算了吧,我們只求能生活,政府不要逼迫我們,就很幸福了」。

瓦希德上台後 才敢要求平反

只有到了蘇哈托下台,繼任者哈比比被迫辭職,公元兩千年十月,印尼華人社團領袖才敢聯合致函新總統瓦希德,列舉一系列事實,說明蘇哈托政府是如何歧視與鎮壓華人族群,但是距離真正的平反,還有一段漫長的道路。

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Friday, October 14, 2005

Proud of being a centrist

You are a

Social Moderate
(50% permissive)

and an...

Economic Liberal
(38% permissive)

You are best described as a:

Centrist




Link: The Politics Test on Ok Cupid
Also: The OkCupid Dating Persona Test

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Thursday, October 13, 2005

The Economist :China in space

Per obscura ad astra
Oct 13th 2005 | BEIJING
From print edition

China's secretive space programme alarms Japan


FOR the launch of its second manned rocket, China opened the doors of its secretive space programme—a crack. Unlike the first such lift-off two years ago, the event was broadcast live. As the Shenzhou 6 and its two-man crew were propelled into a cold grey sky, the authorities' fears of an embarrassing failure in front of millions melted away.

But China is not yet ready to bare all. Only state-run television and radio were allowed to conduct the coverage. No foreign media were allowed anywhere near the launch site in Gansu province, about 900 miles (1,500 kilometres) west of Beijing, in the Gobi Desert. The date of the launch (October 12th) was announced only the day before; the time, just minutes in advance. What little had leaked out previously came mainly from small provincial newspapers.

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State television did not even mention the possibility of a launch until the date was confirmed. The intended length of the mission has still not been officially announced. The government notified foreign journalists that if they had any questions about the mission, they should submit them by fax.

This venture, however, is clearly a more adventurous step for China than the launch of Shenzhou 5, which carried only one man into orbit for 21 hours. The latest mission is rumoured to be scheduled to last for nearly five days and involve 80 earth orbits. Astronauts Fei Junlong and Nie Haisheng (both fighter pilots) have moved from their seats to conduct experiments in a separate orbital unit that will remain in space after they return in the re-entry module.

It is also becoming clear that China has plans to become a space power. Yang Liwei, China's first astronaut, has said that Shenzhou 7 is scheduled for launch in 2007 and will involve a space walk. The next mission will practise docking. Next year China is likely to launch a probe that will orbit the moon (a feat achieved only by Russia, America and Japan). It hopes to put an unmanned rover on the moon by 2012 and retrieve lunar samples robotically by 2020. Some reports talk of a human moon landing by then.

The speed with which China has developed manned space flight has surprised and alarmed Japanese policymakers. Shame was added to the mix when just a month after China's first manned flight, in October 2003, a Japanese rocket carrying two spy satellites had to be blown up, ignominiously, ten minutes after the launch when a booster failed to disengage. Further satellite launches were restarted only last spring.

For years Japan's space programme has dwindled, a consequence of budget cuts and of Japan's constitutional inability to develop anything that might have military applications. Japan now spends just $1.8 billion a year on its space programme, a fall of one-third from the peak: still more than China says it spends, but a fraction of NASA's annual budget.

China's progress in space has strengthened the hand of Japan's space lobby. In March, the Japanese space agency, JAXA, under a new head, Keiji Tachikawa (who previously ran NTT DoCoMo, the country's mobile-phone giant), laid out its new vision for the next 20 years. JAXA wants a manned space programme, with a space station on the moon. Some Japanese policymakers argue that space is an area where much needed co-operation could actually take place between Japan and China. But there is precious little sign of that yet.

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张五常:中国经济是亮了红灯吗? 10/13/2005

这些日子我对中国的经济发展坐立不安。一方面,五千年第一次打进国际经济,踢世界波,踢得似模似样,鬼子佬无不啧啧称奇,作为炎黄子孙我当然高兴,也有点骄傲。事实上,不需要是炎黄子孙,我的美国朋友一般为中国拍掌。支持历史上的underdog乃人之常情也。 另一方面,中国的经济发展到了今天的形势,加上树大招风,行差踏错可以败走麦城。最头痛是国际竞争激烈,靠接单的厂家一般认为,如果在国际上自己成本上升百分之五,加上汇率的变动使出口价上升百分之五,关门大吉可期也。

几天前跟一位在广东接单的厂家朋友论经济,谈到印度。他说一位印度商人订货,亲自跑到神州来逐件检验,很苛求,害得他几晚没睡觉。他说几年前印度产出的类同产品质量较低,价格也较高,接单容易。但今天印度的类同产品质量一样,价格相同,印度商人还跑到中国来订购,主要是因为印度的工厂比中国的小很多,大量订购印度应付不了。印度厂小显然因为资金不足,但假以时日,资金问题得到解决,再来中国订货就不划算了。 去年末季印度的国民收入增长率比中国的高,今年首三季落后中国一两个百分点。可能像中国十多年前那样,印度的国民收入增长率是低估了。两星期前侯夫子告诉我,他读到一篇鬼子佬写的文章,说印度目前的发展形势胜于中国。

说过了,我衷心希望印度的经济搞起来,就是搞得比中国富裕我也高兴。我深信不疑的比较优势定律说,大家自由专业产出,互相贸易取利,不会有输家,而历史的经验也这样说。问题是,如果有国际政治压力的左右,或自己作出一些蠢政策,比较优势有了转移,输得兵败山倒是可能的。 是的,这些日子外国人把中国的经济发展捧到天上去,北京的领导者可能有点飘飘然。不是批评,因为炎黄子孙一般地飘飘然。骄傲不打紧,也应该,问题是自满,以为自己了不起,有资格轻浮也乱来一下。这是错,错、错、错。 是的,这些日子我觉得北京或上海等大地区的政府有点自满,有点轻浮。说什么经济过热,要宏观调控,你调人家不调,你大言不惭人家拼命跑上去,斗输不打紧,但调控左右了市场的运作,可以入肉伤身。说什么楼价过高,或上升得太快,处理的办法竟然不是增加楼宇的土地供应,而是推出种种左右市场的法例。你这样做,人家不这样做,头痛头痛。 什么最低工资,社会福利,发展得有看头的经济往往如此这般地过瘾一下。这些小动作通常会变大,而大了对经济有大损,是那些所谓先进国家的经验。

德国叫救命的例子有说服力。今天的形势史无前例,廉价劳力多得很的国家多得很,一起参与国际大比并,而中国还有数亿农民人口要转到工业去,北京要眼观六路,果断处理,切忌轻浮。告诉你吧,今天广东的民工短缺(一项估计是缺二百万),可不是因为民工北上,而是因为在国际竞争下,广东的厂家不容易以增加工资的方法来解决民工荒的困难。 是的,我认为两个多月前中国央行提升人民币值百分之二强是轻浮之举。人家赞几句,施点压力,北京的坚持于是失守。纵观天下大势,我曾经大声疾呼不可,蒙代尔也大声反对,史丹福的一位大教授反对得更厉害。大家都记得历史,也懂得判断国际的竞争形势。 中国经济是亮了红灯吗?朋友,你自己想想吧。

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张五常:中国是个怪地方——覆李怡 10/04/2005

那天写《希望带李怡畅游神州》,发稿后收到通知,指我说李怡比我年长一两岁不对,要改为年龄相若。我想,自小过耳不忘,怎可以记错李怡的年岁呢?跟着记起来了。二十多年前,在一个宴会中,有人把我与李敖、李怡相提并论,说年龄差不多,一个比我大一两岁,一个比我小一两岁。我把二李搞乱了。

不认识李敖。最近他火烧神州,听来过瘾。我想,与今天的正规学者相比,我们三人打个七折也算是才子吧。可惜都老了,而天下间没有老才子这回事。李敖斗志旺盛,魄力不减当年,但李怡看来像我一样,有点经不起时代的蹂躏!

四十多年前在美国求学,师友老是问:中国人有上苍赐予的天赋,有深厚的文化,怎可以搞成这个样子的?问的是一个怪现象,深不可测,我几年前才找到答案。二十年前跑北京,宴会中一位高干对我说;教授呀,你不懂中国的情况!我想:又是那一套,难道你比我懂吗?

今天下午见到周其仁,大家谈的当然是中国经济。我对他作了个比喻,说一个运动员跳高八呎,所有专家都说这运动员不懂得跳,姿势奇劣,方法犯错不少,建议多处要改的,分析得似模似样。但我想,跳高八呎是人类纪录,这运动员在某方面一定跳得对,对得神奇,专家们墨守成规,有一天会见笑天下。该运动员跳得怪,正如中国是个怪地方。


这些年不少专家朋友说:中国的经济是泡沫,是虚假现象。我想,超重的货车把新建的世界级公路一下子就压坏了,难道车中载着的是盘古初开的石头吗?那天好奇地考查装修用的磁砖,研究了两个小时,高档比高档,国产的与进口的我怎样也分不开来,进口比国产价高三倍。毫不虚假,没有泡沫,但不合常理,有点怪。


李怡比我幸运:他没有我那样大的争议性。我比李怡幸运:我的求学际遇比他的好。除了这些,读者只要看他和我的文字,推理的思维,观察的视野,就知道我们一起曾经沧海。他说自己对共产中国作出过错误的判断,有点苦味,何必耿耿于怀呢?中国是个怪地方,看错了不等于不是才子。


我自己是看对了的。一九七九年到广州走了两天,回美后想了一年,于一九八一年写成了《中国会走向「资本主义」的路吗?》,推断了中国会走今天的路。不是智力高于李怡,而是时间上我占了优势,加上当时我对交易费用与制度运作的关系的掌握,今天高斯与巴赛尔等朋友认为不可能更好。这是际遇,是我之幸,夸张一点说也是中国之幸。

几年来我为中国这个在姿势上频频出错的运动员能高跳八呎日思夜想。两年多前决定了地区与地区之间的竞争是重心所在。但为什么中国会有那样热闹的地区竞争呢?一个月前我找到肯定的答案。不想写出来,但希望找一两位懂中国传统的朋友解释一番,炫耀一下,第一个想到的是李怡。在辛辣文字的背后李怡客观,接受逻辑,想得快,而像我一样,他也衷心地希望中国会好起来:人民的生活有改进,个人的自由空间扩大,知识不断增长。

不敢说是受到我的影响,但中国改革的方法与路向无疑与我二十多年前在《信报》提出的很相似。可能是中国影响了我。也是际遇。但这样掌握着中国的经改脉搏,我还要花几年时间才能理解为何可以高跳八呎,说中国是个怪地方是对的吧。

二○○五年十月四日

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张五常:悼紫阳 02/2005

一九八八年九月十九日我带佛利民(即:弗里德曼)到中南海会见当时是中共中央总书记的赵老,是不容易想象的「奇遇」了。一个是世界上最庞大的共产党的总书记,一个是二十世纪声誉最高的维护私产的经济学者。气氛友好,互不相让,论事客观,一时针锋相对,一时互相恭维,谈了整整两个小时,我坐在那里听得痴了。自己是个方家,很有点不相信见到的刀光剑影,更不相信没有读过大学的赵老竟然可与才高八斗、口才盖世的佛老打个平手。

会面后赵老亲自带我们到门外,解释哪个是中海,哪个是南海。汽车开行我立刻对佛老说:「米尔顿,那位总书记懂经济!」他响应:「不仅懂,而且深入。」我继续说:「总书记说得那样层次分明,是为了这次会谈作了不少准备吧。」佛老响应:「不是的,这个人对经济问题日思夜想,不需要准备什么。」

该年十二月,佛老破例地写了一封圣诞信,寄给亲友,主要是提到中国之行。他说周游列国五十年,遇到政要无数,但从来没有遇到一位像赵紫阳那样思想清晰、论事客观、诚恳可信的国家领导者。

虽然经济是一门科学,但个人的直觉感受有决定性。有些聪明才智的人,穷毕生之力研习经济学,但直觉感受平平,于是失误频频。有些人没有正规地读过经济,但天生的直觉感受好,观察入微,经济的运作会在他们的脉搏中跳。史密斯是一例,戴维德是一例,赵紫阳也是一例。

我记录了赵、佛二老会面时的几句有趣对话。佛:「刚才你说我是教授,你是学生,但听到你对中国经济的分析,你的本质是教授呀!」赵:「我只读过中学。」佛:「不要把在学校的时间多少与学问的高低混为一谈。有些人念了多年书也没有什么学问;有些人念书不多,但学问非同小可。」赵:「中国也有这两种人。一些学而无术,一些不学有术。」

佛老和我认为当时职位高高在上的赵紫阳是个虚心求教、喜欢考虑他人之见的人。熟知赵老的朋友说,他是个喜欢不断试验、慎重思考、多方推理的经济实践者。在四川时他试行让国企有自主权,而在八十年代初期,贵为国务院总理,他亲自跑到武汉去观察蔬菜自由市场的尝试。试验,观其效果优劣,思其理,修改再试验,相当肯定可行才推出去。这种做法显然比纸上谈兵的正规经济学者高明得多了。

赵老是一九八○至一九八七的国务院总理,八七至八九的总书记。这九个年头是中国开放改革初期,最困难、最关键的时刻。万事起头难,何况上有几个意见不同的老人家需要招呼,下有贫苦大众与年轻学子需要安抚。邓小平提供与坚持经济改革的方向,但细节如何,怎样实践推行,却落在赵紫阳的身上。可以说,从八○至八九这九个改革关键年头,邓老与赵老是最佳拍挡。

中国的经济改革史无前例,今天举世的人天天都在谈中国经济,不能不说是个奇迹。作出贡献的当然不止于邓、赵二老,但将来的历史学者会听我的话,说中国奇迹(The China Miracle)起于这二老的相得益彰。是中国之幸,二者是没有读过多少书的经济体制的实践天才。

还是说一些温馨的回忆吧。赵老知道我这个怪教授的存在。曾经送过他一瓶红酒,一件毛衣。曾经听到他要在相片上签个名字送给我,但找不到相片。曾经听到有人告诉他我到四川走了一趟,他问:「是去作经济顾问吗?」这些无足轻重的琐事,牵涉到自己敬重的人,不容易忘记。有朝一日,我会对今天才十七个月大的孙儿细说一番。

去年三月二十五日,我发表了《要冷静地处理中国农民问题》,其中提出三个大原则。其一是要大幅地减少中国的农民人口;其二是要放弃农产品自供自给的保护主义,以工业产品出口换取农产品进口;其三是大量廉价地向农民提供知识教育。两个星期后收到赵老托女儿带来的口讯,说完全同意该文的三大原则。一时间我觉得自己是个农业经济本科生,考试大教授给我一百分。

我曾经为赵老的孙辈写过求学的推荐信。非常容易写,因为学子的成绩好得离奇。我是个相信基因遗传的人。这方面有一个高顿概率,说祖先的天赋,一代一代地遗传下去,会趋向人均水平。赵老的孙辈读书考试如入无人之境,他自己的天赋无疑是上苍恩赐的吧。

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Wednesday, October 12, 2005

Please defend me for embracing the art and resisting the porn:)

Simonworld's guestblogger Dan recently posted some Guo Jingchun's photo from her 1999 album "true color". I sincerely agree with his taste on this one, although that's probalby the only good picture that he has ever posted:) In fact Guo's work is the best among what I have ever seen in the same category of albums from Taiwan. Several years after 1999, fortunately we mainland Chinese finally can stand up and say: Hey, we've gotten some good works too.
The girl in the photos below is Tang Jiali, a Bali dancer.






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While the fourth round of the East China Sea oil & gas consultation is ahead, Chinese media are asking the government to adopt the firm position.

The materials below are mainly from a report in Chinese found on finance.sina.com.cn on October 12th, 2005. According to Sina, the report was originally published on Chinese industry and commerce Times written by reporter Wen Xue Mei


Sino-Japan East China Sea oil-gas field confliction has led to the tense situation. The third round of consultation was not fruitful. Japan suggested reopening the new consultation on 19th, this month, and raising the consultation to the ministerial level. Although China has not yet responsed, China and Japan are anticipated to reopen the talk before the end of this month. The expert reminds that Japan has changed its strategy from a strong offensive position to a murderous-intention-concealed flexible offensive position in this negotiation. The cooperative development plan suggested by Japan is a hidden sword. In fact, on the East China Sea problem, China proposed a cooperative development plan back in 1960’s. In 2004, China proposed the plan to Japan again in East Asia 10 + 3 energy ministerial conference, the third session of Asia conversational conference as well as many other kinds of situations. But Japan ignored the proposals and requested China to provide the mining data of Chunxiao and other 7 related oil-gas fields. China rejected Japan for obvious reasons. In this May, in the second round of consultation, China once again proposed the plan, Japan again rejected it.

That’s why it is interesting that, in the third turn of consultation, Japan suddenly proposed his own cooperative development plan. This plan suggested both sides should cooperate in the development of East China Sea, however, China has to stop the operation in Chunxiao oil field and send Japan the data of exploration in Chunxiao and so on.

Lv YaoDong, a researcher from Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Japan research institute, considers this as a transition from the strong offensive position to a more flexible offensive position in Japan’s negotiation strategy. However, the Japanese version of cooperative development plan contains an extremely dangerous intention towards China’s interests.

First of all it is the sovereignty issue. China is exploring its own territory and the oil-gas drilling is completely inside its own sovereignty scope. However Japan’s plan takes China’s exclusive economic zone as a stake in the negotiation. Obviously the real intention of Japanese is to force China to accept the middle line theory and hope to make a even bigger breakthrough in sovereignty issue.

Secondly, Japan uses its own cooperative development plan to request China to provide the mining data of Chunxiao and other 7 related oil-gas fields inside China’s EEZ. The mining data contain information about geology and landscape of East China Sea. Relying on these materials, Japan may ask for the sovereignty power of the East China Sea in 2009 at the United Nations. (In May of 1999, the United Nation continental shelf boundary committee formulated the new standard, which regulated the application deadline for various countries attempting to extend their continental shelf is 2009.) As the time approaches this deadline, Japan is doing everything possible to investigate East China Sea. However because China started the process earlier, Japan is eager to obtain these data. But if Japan force to explore this region, it may lead to accidents with Chinese Navy, therefore, the easiest way for Japan to get these data is through the diplomatic method in the disguise of the cooperation banner.

Thirdly, Japan wants to occupy the Chinese Diaoyu Islands forever by forcing China to accept the middle line theory.

China must be in sharp opposition to Japan’s strategy and persist the principle of sovereignty.

Japanese prime minister once advocated to turn East China Sea "a sea of dispute" into "a sea of united efforts". Some Japanese officials also expressed such a wish. But, from a series of actions regarding to the East China Sea, Japan in fact is constructing a trap and China must maintain the vigilance.

Yao Dong suggested that since Japan did not express any sincerity as it proposed and even tried to use China’s own EEZ as a stake in the third round of negotiation, China should also adopt the certain diplomatic strategy in sharp opposition to the development plan that Japan proposed. For example China may request the rights to develop the region extending to LiuQiu trench (Ryukyu trench). It has been reported the oil & gas resources mainly concentrates in the three spots on the continental shelf. One is the middle region of the continental shelf; one is around the Diaoyu Island. The other is in Ryukyu trench. Without the sincerity from Japan, it will not be helpful to consider ministerial level negotiation with Japan in the end of this month.

Japan's land territory is relatively small, but by applying the concept of 200 nautical miles economical exclusive zone, Japan has already become the world 6th largest country by its claim of the sea sovereignty. The method used by Japan to enlarge its territory is nothing but extreme. For instance, as a reef itself, the ChongNiao reef should not have its own EEZ, but Japan utterly used the cement to turn it as a small island, and claim 200 nautical mile EEZ from this cemented reef, which is obviously unjustified.

Facing this kind of expansion strategy, one may expect, China and Japan will have a prolonged fight in East China Sea. What is China's strategy to the conflict? Some expert suggested solving the problems from the easiest to the hardest. Some other expert considered a compromise between the middle line theory and the continental shelf theory. But Yao Dong doesn’t think the problems in those ways. Instead of a technical question or a legal problem, Yao Dong considers it as a political conflict and China must be firm on this problem. China has to realize that Japan's goal is to seize China’s continental shelf. By simply resorting to the existing law to delimit the continental shelf is not fair enough in this particular situation. It is ridiculous to share the continental shelf with Japan because a chain of islands is treated equally as comparison with the massive continent of China.

There are already some proposals from senior diplomats which suggest China thinking the sovereign status of Ryukyu Islands again. Yao Dong agrees that the real status of the Ryukyu Islands may help to completely nullify the middle line theory and will eventually help China to solve the East China Sea conflict from the bottom. We must put our vision to the entire East China Sea, Yao Dong said. Facing the national sovereignty, the top principle is following the principle.

Check the earlier heated debate on this blog for the further information, and more

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Monday, October 10, 2005

Beat the shit out the National day on the both side of the Taiwan strait

While the mainland China's local legislator Lu Banglie was not as seriously beaten as Guardian reported in the Taishi incident, it seems that the Taiwanese KMT legislator Zhang Shuowen was maliciously attacked by DPP's legistlator Li Mingxiang in the Parliament of ROC. See picture below.

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經濟學人:日本經濟旭日東昇

VIA CHINATIMES
胡健蘭/台北報導


長達15年的經濟萎靡,今年的日本真的不一樣了。《經濟學人》調查報導指出,企業體質改善、金融壞帳減少、九月國會大選,都讓人相信日本經濟正露出十多年來少見的曙光,政治人物不用再因為委靡的經濟向民眾道歉了。

日本經歷多年通貨緊縮後,今年就業市場好轉,雇員薪資提升,工作穩定促使消費支出增加,未來日本經濟成長可望靠內需支撐,而非只能靠出口及資本投資推動,一般家庭的儲蓄率可望再度上揚。《經濟學人》指出,日本經濟的改善將是一個漸進的過程。


不過,雖然日本經濟正邁向復甦,但是持續下滑的出生率及人口老化的情況將是日本經濟未來發展的隱憂。

日本保健部門統計,2050年日本的人口數將由目前的1.28億減少至1億人,不過,HSBC駐東京首席經濟學家彼得摩根(Peter Morgan)卻認為,日本官方估計過於樂觀,他認為在日本女性越來越晚婚的情況下,2050年日本人口有可能降至8600萬。

《經濟學人》分析,如過要解決勞動力不足的問題,日本女性就業率必須提高,但是一旦日本女性就業人數提高,就更可能發生生育率降低的問題,政府必須思考在鼓勵女性就業的情況下,怎麼做好嬰幼兒照護的社會福利。

經濟合作暨發展組織(OECD)預估,日本未來5年的經濟成長率每年可能只有1.3%的動能,不過,樂觀派卻認為人口老化及人口縮減的問題不單只是日本獨有,日本可以靠教育、先進的科技以及企業間的相互合作解決人力荒。

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